@RISK is the Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel® or Lotus® 1-2-3. As an add-in, @RISK becomes seamlessly integrated - via a new toolbar and functions - with your spreadsheet, adding Risk Analysis to your existing models. If you can use a spreadsheet, you can use @RISK!

@RISK uses a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation to allow you to take all possible outcomes into account. Simply replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK functions which represent a range of possible values. Select bottom-line cells, like Total Profits, as outputs, and start a simulation. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or even thousands of times, each time selecting random numbers from the @RISK functions you entered. 

@RISK lets you see all possible outcomes! 
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The result: distributions of possible outcomes and the probabilities of getting those results! This not only tells you what could happen in a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen. With @RISK, you can answer questions like "What are the chances of getting a negative result?" or "What is the probability of earning profits over $500,000?"

@RISK 4.0 for Excel comes in three editions - Standard, Professional, and Industrial - to allow you to select the feature set which best meets your needs.

Risk Analysis 
Risk Analysis, in a broad sense, is any method - qualitative and/or quantitative - for assessing the impacts of risk on decisions. A myriad of Risk Analysis methods are used that blend both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The goal of any of these methods is to help the decision-maker choose a course of action, given a better understanding of the possible outcomes that could occur. You might wonder if what you do would be suitable for Risk Analysis. If you use data to solve problems, make forecasts, develop strategies, or make decisions, then you definitely should consider performing Risk Analysis. 

Risk Analysis With @RISK 
Risk Analysis in @RISK is a quantitative method that seeks to determine the outcomes of a decision as a probability distribution. In general, Risk Analysis with @RISK encompasses four steps:

1. Developing a Model - First you define your problem or situation in an Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet format. 

2. Identifying Uncertainty - Next, determine which inputs in your model are uncertain, and represent those using ranges of values with @RISK probability functions. Identify which result or output of your model you want to analyze.

3. Analyzing the Model with Simulation - Run your simulation to determine the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes for the outputs you've identified. 

4. Making a Decision - Armed with complete information from your analysis, and your personal preferences, make your decision.

Step 1: Develop a Model
The first step is constructing a model in your spreadsheet that represents your situation. Because you are working in a spreadsheet, you are virtually unlimited in what you can model. You might be launching a new product and want to see the potential profits, or you might want to see the potential pollution effects a new factory might have on a river. Perhaps you work in pharmaceuticals and need to analyze the effectiveness of a new drug therapy on an illness, or you are an oil executive looking to determine whether or not to drill at a new site. Whatever your situation, @RISK can help! 

Step 2: Define Your Model Using the @RISK Model Window
Next you need to represent uncertainty in your spreadsheet model. You probably base most decisions on whatever data you have on hand - historical costs, competitors' prices, vendor estimates, etc. But how often do you have full, complete information? Prices change, demand fluctuates, costs rise. By using probability distribution functions to represent a range of possible values, @RISK lets you take that uncertainty into account. Simply select a cell whose value you are unsure of and replace its value with one of the 37 @RISK probability distributions below:

For example, if you have a cost estimate with a most likely value of $10,000, but you know it can't go below $7,000 or higher than $15,000, you can represent that uncertainty with a Triangular distribution using the function RiskTriang (7000, 10000, 15000). @RISK functions become true Excel or 1-2-3 functions that may be used in other function arguments or support cell references. This gives you maximum flexibility in defining your models.

@RISK 4.0 for Excel makes entering your probability functions easy. Simply type them in like you would any Excel function, use the Excel Paste Function tool, or use the @RISK Define Distribution Window to enter your probability distributions graphically (see below for details). @RISK 4.0 also features a Function Wizard that tells you exactly what arguments each @RISK function requires. 

The @RISK Define Distribition Window lets you define your model graphically.
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Once you've entered your distribution functions, select the bottom-line cell or cells whose values you are interested in (such as Total Profit) and click the Add Output button in the @RISK toolbar. This adds a RiskOutput function to the chosen cell, allowing you to name, move, and manage your outputs easily.Open the @RISK Model Window to see a clear, Explorer-style list of your inputs and outputs at a glance! You can also perform distribution fitting, correlate inputs, and open a Define Distribution Window from the @RISK Model Window.

Visualize Your Uncertainty with RISKview™
@RISK 4.0 allows complete graphical selection of your probability distribution functions using RISKview 4.0, Palisade's distribution previewing companion. Now entering your distributions is easier than ever because you can see them, edit them, and apply them with a few clicks of the mouse. 

RISKview comes fully integrated with every copy of @RISK 4.0 for Excel, and appears as a convenient pop-up Define Distribution Window right over your spreadsheet. You can view graphs, parameters, and statistics of any @RISK distribution. All graphs include adjustable delimiters and probability bars for viewing calculated probabilities and other statistics directly on graphs. Simply slide the delimiter on a graph to see calculated probabilities both on the graph and in the linked statistical report. RISKview even lets you overlay graphs of different distributions for comparison, change parameters, and draw your own curves!

RISKview 4.0 pops up right over your spreadsheet model! 

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 When you draw your own curves using RISKview's Distribution Artist, RISKview can find the standard probability distribution which best fits that curve. RISKview can also directly link to any distribution in your spreadsheet model for instant updating. Defining your uncertainty couldn't be more intuitive.

Fit Distributions to Data with BestFit®
There may be times when you have historical data on a particular input in your model. For example, you may have price data on the material costs of a product you are going to produce. You would like to use this data to represent uncertainty in your model, but how? With BestFit 4.0, Palisade's distribution fitting tool, it's easy! BestFit 4.0 has been fully integrated with the Professional and Industrial versions of @RISK 4.0 for Excel. Just read your data into the @RISK Model Window, and click the Fit button. BestFit will find the distribution which best describes your data. 

Defining an @RISK distribution in your spreadsheet using fitting? @RISK will fit your data automatically and return the results to the Define Distribution Window in one easy step. And your fit is linked to the resulting @RISK functions. If the underlying data changes, the fit automatically re-runs and updates the distribution in your model!

BestFit ranks dozens of distribution functions against your data, and provides comprehensive results. Four types of graphs are available to assess accuracy of the fit, and there are complete statistical reports and goodness-of-fit data. Choose from Comparison, Difference, Probability-Probability, or Quantile-Quantile graphs. Like RISKview, BestFit includes sliding delimiters and probability bars on all graphs. Graph types can be easily formatted be using toolbar icons or right-click menus, and may be exported to Excel in native Excel format for further modification.

BestFit 4.0 gives you multiple graphing options and full statistics for your fits. 
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But it doesn't stop there. BestFit has a host of advanced features for the power user. BestFit uses three advanced fitting algorithms to optimize its fits - Chi Square, Anderson-Darling, and Komolgorov-Smirnov. You can read in data sets with up to 100,000 points, in sample, density, or cumulative format. You can fit multiple data sets in a single project, and specify which predefined distributions to fit to. BestFit allows full control over Chi-squared calculations, including equal interval binning, equal probability binning, and full custom binning. It will also perform the RMS (root mean square error) test for cumulative and density data. 

With BestFit, you can easily use your data to accurately describe uncertainty in your model. Comprehensive reporting and advanced features ensure that you have complete information about your data and allow maximum control over fitting. Office-style toolbars and tabbed sheets mean there is virtually no learning curve to use BestFit!

Step 3: Simulate and View All Possible Outcomes!
Once your model is set up, click the Simulation Settings button if you want to customize the parameters of your simulation. You can specify the number of iterations (or times @RISK recalculates the spreadsheet model), update the spreadsheet in real-time numberically or graphically as @RISK is simulating, control the convergence criteria, and choose Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube sampling. This gives you complete control over your simulations. Or, use the default settings and @RISK will automate everything for you. Then click the Simulate button and watch!

@RISK recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or thousands of times! Each time, @RISK selects random numbers from the @RISK functions you entered and records the resulting output. Each recalculation shows a possible combination of uncertain values or a "scenario" that could occur. At the end of the simulation, you have a whole range of possible outcomes, and the probabilities of them occurring! Your spreadsheet has gone from representing one possible scenario to representing all possible scenarios!

Analyze Your Results in the @RISK Results Window
When your simulation is complete, all the results appear instantly in the @RISK Results Window. The Results Window, like the Model Window, features an Explorer style list of inputs and tabbed reports. Extensive graphing options, comprehensive statistics, full data, and advanced analyses like Sensitivity and Scenario analyses are available with the click of a button.

Dazzling Graphs
One of the strengths of Monte Carlo simulation is that it produces enough data to create accurate graphs. Histograms, cumulative curves, area and line graphs are all available in @RISK 4.0. As in the Model Window, graphs are created with simple toolbar clicks or right-click menus. Select the type of graph, then customize it by selecting colors, changing scaling, creating new titles and axis labels, and more! Do you have a range of outputs you'd like to graph? Simply highlight the range in the Explorer list and select Summary Graph to see your risk over time. 

The @RISK Results Window gives you countless graphing and reporting options! 
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You can even overlay multiple variables on the same graph for comparison. All graphs may also be displayed in Excel format for further enhancement. These Excel format graphs recreate any @RISK graph in native Excel chart format, giving you access to all of Excel's charting capabilities. @RISK's various graphing options allow you to quickly and easily present possible outcomes for any situation to others!

All graphs include summary statistics in the same window for easy reference. They also include probability bars and sliding delimiters, so you can answer questions like "What are the chances of losing money on this venture?" simply by sliding a bar to the $0 mark on your cumulative curve and reading the probability result below.

Want to see how your graph changes as the simulation runs? @RISK 4.0 will display and update any graph in real-time while your simulation is running. You can start, stop, and control the frequency of updates.

Accurate Statistics and Data
Click the Detailed Statistics button to see statistics for all outputs displayed in a spreadsheet-like format for easy viewing. All the complete statistics you would expect are here. You can also enter target values and find the likelihood of achieving them, similar to using the sliding delimiters on the graphs. Another click and you can see all data for inputs and outputs for every iteration of the simulation. You can cut and paste data and statistics to other applications, or have @RISK generate a full statistical or data report in your spreadsheet for further analysis. @RISK allows full access to the information of your simulation!

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
@RISK performs two additional advanced analyses: Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis, both accessible by clicking their tabs in the Results Window. Sensitivity Analysis determines which input distributions have the biggest impact on the outputs. The results can be displayed as an easy-to-interpret Tornado chart, with longer bars at the top representing the most significant input variables. You can choose from Rank-Order Correlation or Multi-variate Stepwise Regression to perform Sensitivity Analysis. Sensitivity Analysis allows you to zero in on the factors in your model which contribute the most to your risk! 

Scenario Analysis identifies combinations of inputs – or scenarios – which lead to output target values. This lets you make such crucial observations as "When profit is high, operating cost is low, sales price is high, and cost of market entry is low." 

Customizable Reports
The best analysis always has to be presented to others. To help with this, @RISK provides extensive capabilities for reporting on both your model and simulation results. To start, any @RISK graph or report can be pasted into Excel or other applications. In addition, @RISK 4.0 comes with a report generator that will quickly create a report with graphs and statistics on your simulation. Lastly, @RISK 4.0's report template feature allows you to build custom reports in Excel that contain just the statistics and graphs you want, plus any custom formatting, logos, and more. Your template will be used to create a polished report from each simulation you run.

Step 4: Make a Decision 
Using @RISK's comprehensive results and your own personal thresholds for risk, you are now ready to make a well-informed decision. By accounting for all possible outcomes, @RISK gives you the tools to make the best possible decision in any situation!

Advanced Features Make @RISK a True Powerhouse 
@RISK comes with a number of advanced features that make the only choice for top decision-makers world wide.

Multiple Simulations
@RISK features the RiskSimTable function, which allows multiple simulations to be run back-to-back. This lets you change only select inputs in your model from simulation to simulation, so you can compare the effect of a variable or variables on your outcome. For example, you may with to see what impact charging different prices has on your profits. You can even graph the results from multiple simulations on one chart!

Correlate Your Inputs for More Accurate Models
In real life, inputs are seldom independent. When interest rates are high, mortgages are low, for example. If you don't take these relationships into account when building your model, you risk dangerously inaccurate results. The @RISK Model Window provides an easy way to correlate inputs in your model using a simple matrix format. Click a button to get a blank matrix, then drag inputs onto it from the Explorer list. Enter in correlation coefficients, click Apply, and the correlations are automatically written to your spreadsheet model.

Correlate your inputs in the @RISK Model Window. 

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New Statistics and Graphing Functions
@RISK 4.0 for Excel adds a set of statistics functions which return a desired statistic on simulation results anywhere in your spreadsheet. These functions include all standard statistics plus percentiles and target probabilities, and can be used just like any other Excel or @RISK function. You can watch the statistics update real-time as the simulation runs, as well!

The statistics described by these functions are:

• Kurtosis 

• Max 

• Mean 

• Min 

• Mode 

• Percentile 

• Range 

• Skewness 

• Standard Deviation 

• Target Value 

• Variance 

@RISK 4.0 also includes a powerful graph placement function that places any graph of simulation results directly in your spreadsheet. Place this new RiskResultsGraph function anywhere in your spreadsheet and automatically, after a simulation, the desired graph will be appear directly in Excel. As with all @RISK graphs, you can choose to generate a graph in metafile or standard Excel chart format.

Enhanced VBA Support for Custom Applications
@RISK 4.0 lets you write your own custom applications in Excel that can perform virtually any @RISK function. Harness the power of @RISK's Monte Carlo simulation engine for your company's specific needs. Utilize @RISK's extensive reporting options, Sensitivity analysis, Scenario analysis, distribution fitting, and more, all in your own custom Excel program! Example files are included demonstrating how to use these commands. Plus, you can run macros before, during, or after a simulation run. Click here for a complete listing of macro commands and example files.

Optimize Your Simulation Results with @RISK Industrial!
@RISK 4.0 Industrial for Excel comes with RISKOptimizer, the simulation optimization add-in for Excel. RISKOptimizer is an innovative tool which allows you to optimize the results of an @RISK simulation, finding the best combination of inputs to maximize or minimize your bottom line.

@RISK alone uses Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in models and view the probabilities of various outcomes occurring. But Monte Carlo simulation cannot deal with input or decision variables whose values you can control. It views all possible outcomes at a single state of those controllable variables.

RISKOptimizer changes all that. With RISKOptimizer, many different combinations of controllable inputs (called adjustable cells) are tried in order to maximize or minimize your output. This process of trying different inputs is called optimization. But unlike other optimizers, RISKOptimizer performs Monte Carlo simulation while it is optimizing, allowing uncertainty to be taken into account. For each different combination of inputs - or trial solution - RISKOptimizer runs a Monte Carlo simulation. In this way, RISKOptimizer looks at all possible outcomes in many different states. This is an extremely powerful technique that can solve problems not previously solvable by traditional linear or nonlinear optimization packages.

For example, say you run an @RISK simulation on a potential product launch to see the range of possible outcomes for profit. But your model is based on using specific vendors to supply the raw materials for your product. There may be other vendors who can offer cheaper materials, quicker turnaround, or more attractive shipping. With @RISK alone, you could run multiple simulations for different vendors, but did you try every possible combination of inputs? RISKOptimizer will try many different combinations until it maximizes the simulation results for profit.

RISKOptimizer combines simulation with optimization to solve the most complex problems. Click to view larger graphic.

RISKOptimizer uses the same genetic-algorithm based optimization engine as Evolver. With genetic algorithms, favorable trial solutions are combined to produce more and more effective "offspring" solutions. "Mutations," or randomly generated new trial solutions, occur to make sure that all possible solutions are explored. In this way, RISKOptimizer achieves true "global" solutions and avoids settling on a less effective "local" solution as many traditional hill-climbing optimizers do.

Become an @RISK Wizard!
@RISK comes with a wide variety of resources to help you get started and overcome problems. A comprehensive slide-show tutorial walks you through the features of @RISK and demonstrates how to set up and run a model, step-by-step. The @RISK manual is written in straightforward, plain English and even provides background information on Risk Analysis. The entire manual is also available electronically in @RISK's Help menu. @RISK 4.0 for Excel features a comprehensive, context-sensitive Help file to zero in your question. You can search on a particular topic, or simply ask a plain English question using the new "How Do I..." feature! Finally, example files are provided that can be used as templates for building your own model.

If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of books on how to get the most from @RISK. Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization and Simulation Modeling Using @RISK, both by Wayne Winston, are among the most popular. We also offer Software Training Seminars on @RISK throughout North America and Europe. These seminars provide hands-on training on how to use @RISK, and teach valuable model-building techniques. Click here for more details and to see the latest schedule! 

@RISK Applications

Capital Budgeting                                 Insurance 
Chemical Process Engineering              Mergers & Acquisitions 
Corporate Planning                              Mortgage Pricing 
Cost Analysis                                      Operation Research Analysis 
Engineering Reliability                          Petroleum and Mining Resource Evaluations 
Environmental Impacts & Policy          Retirement Planning 
Financial Risk Analysis                        R&D Assessment 
Foreign Exchange Modeling                Toxicological Analysis 
Health Risk Assessment                      And More! 

@RISK Features

True Spreadsheet Add-In	Multiple Summary and Overlay  Graphs
New Toolbars	Sliding Delimiters on All Graphs
Office-Style Interface	Real-Time Updating of Graphs
@RISK Model Window	Graph in Excel
37 Distribution Functions	Multiple Simulations
Fully Integrated BestFit (Professional and Industrial versions only)	Sensitivity Analysis - Multivariate Stepwise Regression and Rank Order Correlation
Fully Integrated RISKview	Tornado Graphs
Correlation of Inputs	Scenario Analysis
Customizable Simulation Settings	Statistics Functions
Convergence Monitoring	Macros - Execute During Simulation
Full Statistics Report	Macros - Customize with VBA
Full Data Report	Comprehensive Help File and  Tutorial
Reporting in Excel	Integrated RISKOptimizer (Industrial  version only)
Histogram, Area, Line, and  Cumulative Graphs	Fully Integrated with DecisionTools Suite: @RISK, BestFit, TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKview
Target Values
Fully Customizable Graphs
Summary Graphs

Accelerate Your Simulations with @RISKAccelerator!
If you have particularly large models, or need to run complex simulations frequently, @RISKAccelerator is for you. @RISKAccelerator speeds up @RISK simulations by using the multiple CPUs available on a network or within a single machine. @RISKAccelerator "splits up" a simulation and sends it out to idle CPUs to work on. The CPUs then send the results back to the master CPU where they are compiled and presented the same as any other simulation. The work is invisible to the user - all you have to do is click the Simulate button as usual and watch your simulations finish in a fraction of the time they did before!

International Versions Available!
@RISK is also available in French, German, and Spanish. These International versions of @RISK are identical in use and features to the English version of @RISK 3.5 for Excel. The user's guide, menu commands, dialog boxes, and Help files have been completely translated. @RISK is now more accessible to International users and easier to learn than ever before! 

Add @RISK To Your Custom Applications With The @RISK Developers Kit (RDK)!
The @RISK Developers Kit (RDK) contains a callable library of functions that allow you to add @RISK capabilities to your own application written in C, Visual Basic, or other Windows programming languages. You can add uncertainty to your program using any of @RISK's 37 probability distribution functions. The RDK's pre-built templates and examples make it easy to set up and execute a simulation directly in your application. Once a simulation is complete you'll get exactly the same graphs and reports you get in @RISK 3.5 for Excel, including Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis, in the same @RISK interface! The RDK also allows OLE automation of @RISK for Excel. 

Use with the DecisionTools® Suite
@RISK was designed to work with our other DecisionTools® Suite products TopRank®, RISKview™, BestFit® and PrecisionTree®. Start by using TopRank, the What-If Analysis add-in for Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 for Windows, to identify the critical values in your model. Next, in @RISK, replace those values with @RISK probability distribution functions. Use RISKview to preview these distributions or create one by simply drawing it and placing it directly in @RISK. Take real-world data and use BestFit to find the distribution which best fits your data, and use that function in @RISK to realistically represent uncertainty. Then run a thorough Monte Carlo simulation and analyze the results! Create a decision tree with PrecisionTree to accurately describe a decision, and use @RISK to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on your decision tree! With the DecisionTools Suite, you will be prepared to face the risks in any situation! 

System Requirements for @RISK 4.0 
Minimum Platform: Pentium or higher; 16MB RAM; Win 95, 98, NT, 2000. Non-English versions of Windows and Excel also supported. 
Recommended Platform: 32MB RAM
Spreadsheet: Excel 7 (95), 8 (97), 2000
Technical Support: FREE, unlimited technical support
Other Versions Available: @RISK Developer's Kit, @RISKAccelerator, @RISK for Project, @RISK 3.5 International in French, German, Spanish
Demo: Free demo CD available